AI — The New Kill Chain · chapter 20 of 30
PART VI — THE GEOPOLITICAL EARTHQUAKE

Chapter 19: The True Cost of Modern War

174 words1 min

Direct military costs are staggering. But indirect costs dwarf them:

Cost Category

Estimated Figure

Who Pays

U.S. Red Sea interceptors (Nov 2023–Jan 2025)

$670M–$854M

U.S. taxpayers

U.S. THAAD stockpile consumed (June 2025 war)

~25% of total inventory

U.S. defense budget; years to replace

Allied support to Ukraine (2022–2025)

$200B+

Western taxpayers

Red Sea shipping disruption

$1 trillion in goods

Global consumers

Egypt Suez Canal revenue loss

$6 billion (2024)

Egyptian economy

Insurance premium increases

500% for Red Sea

Global shippers/consumers

Qatar LNG output reduction

17% (Iranian strike)

Global energy markets

Ukraine infrastructure damage

$200B+

Ukrainian population; international donors

Russia’s oil refining disruption

17% capacity offline

Russian economy; global oil prices

Operation Rough Rider cost

$1 billion+ (by April 2025)

U.S. taxpayers (Congressional debate)

The distributional injustice is stark: the U.S. absorbs $550M in missile defense costs; Egypt cannot absorb $6B in lost revenue. The global south bears disproportionate costs of wars it did not choose. Developing nations dependent on stable shipping and commodity prices suffer most from conflicts in which they have no voice.

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Soufiane NourredineWrites about agentic AI, autonomous flight and SAP S/4HANA at nourredine.tech.